Influence of transportation carbon emission transfer on long-term evolution of carbon emission under nontechnological change(PDF)
长安大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]
- Issue:
- 2017年06期
- Page:
- 121-127
- Research Field:
- 交通工程
- Publishing date:
Info
- Title:
- Influence of transportation carbon emission transfer on long-term evolution of carbon emission under nontechnological change
- Author(s):
- JIAO Ping; WANG Jian-wei; RUI Xiao-li; YUAN Chang-wei
- School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, Shaanxi, China
- Keywords:
- traffic engineering; transportation; evolution model; carbon emission; evolution mechanism
- PACS:
- U491.92
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- In order to clarify the impact of transportation carbon emission transfer between different provinces and cities in China on its evolution of carbon emission under nontechnological change and know the evolution characteristics of carbon emission in transportation industry of provinces, based on the theory of dynamical systems and evolution scenario analysis, a dynamic evolution model of carbon emission transform in high and low carbon emission provinces, represented by Guangdong Province and Heilongjiang Province, was proposed in this paper by taking long-term evolution law of carbon emission in transportation as the assumptions. The MATLAB software was used to transform Euler equation, difference equation and other methods. Long-term evolution of transportation carbon emission was obtained for independent development of high and low carbon emission provinces, net transfer of high carbon emission provinces and low carbon emission provinces through numerical simulation which ignored the factors of energy technology change in the near future. The results show that steady state of transportation carbon emission transfer in high and low carbon emission provinces exists as the critical value of net transfer of a unit. Evolution of transportation carbon emission is related to the degree of carbon emission transfer between the provinces and the provincial polices control intensity. Evolution of independent development of high and low carbon emission provinces and net transfer of high carbon emission provinces is greatly affected by high carbon emission provinces. Evolution of net transfer of low carbon emission provinces is greatly affected by low carbon emission provinces. Implementation of different intensity of carbon emission regulation policy can significantly change the peak value or peak time of transportation carbon emission in the next long period.
Last Update: 2017-12-18