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Probability model for subgrade hazards susceptibility of Qinghai-Tibet Highway in permafrost regions(PDF)


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Probability model for subgrade hazards susceptibility of Qinghai-Tibet Highway in permafrost regions
CHAI Ming-tang ZHANG Jian-ming MU Yan-hu LIU Ge ZHOU Guo-qing
1. State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences; 2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences; 3. CCCC First Highway Consultants Co., Ltd.; 4. State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics and Deep Underground Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology
road engineering Qinghai-Tibet Highway (QTH) permafrost embankment hazard susceptibility Logistic regression
In order to analyze the distribution characteristics of subgrade distresses of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway (QTH) in permafrost regions, explore the relationship between influencing factors and diseases, quantitatively calculate the weight of each factor on diseases and ultimately forecast the probability of susceptibility of subgrade diseases, this paper selected permafrost sections in the range of about 470 km along the QTH from Xidatan to Tanggula Mountain as evaluation section. Six factors were selected as influence factors, which were volumetric ice content, annual mean ground surface temperature, embankment height, embankment trend, vegetation coverage and surface runoff. According to the extraction of geographic information through the existing map, statistical analysis of design data and field investigation, the original data of each factor was adequately collected. Runoff distribution map of the engineering corridor was drawn. The location where runoff intersected with the QTH was checked by field investigation and maps, and the measured data of subgrade settlement of the QTH evaluation section in 2014 were obtained. The Logistic model was introduced to conduct regression analysis, in which influencing factors were set as independent variables and the measured data of subgrade diseases was set as dependent variable. This paper established a probability model for subgrade diseases susceptibility of the QTH in permafrost regions, and calculated the probability of subgrade diseases in each evaluation unit within the evaluation section. The results show that accuracy of the calculation results is 76.3%. Among all the evaluation sections, the sections in which the probability of susceptibility is less than 15% occupies for 28.62%, and the sections in which the probability of susceptibility is larger than 50% occupies for 5.59%. The sections which are the most probable to develop subgrade diseases distribute from Beilu River to Fenghuo Mountain (K3064 to K3066, K3070 to K3071), Fenghuo Mountain to Yamaer River (K3084 to K3086), Tuotuo River to Kaixin Mountain (K3161 to K3165), Kaixin Mountain to Tongtian River (K3171, K3176 to K3182, K3185), Yanshiping to Tanggula Mountain (K3246).



Last Update: 2017-07-17