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Identification and ranking of accident black spots using advanced empirical Bayes method(PDF)

长安大学学报(自然科学版)[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

Issue:
2019年05期
Page:
115-126
Research Field:
交通工程
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Identification and ranking of accident black spots using advanced empirical Bayes method
Author(s):
TIAN Zhun ZHANG Shengrui
(1. School of Highway, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, Shaanxi, China; 2. School of Civil Engineering, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, Shaanxi, China)
Keywords:
traffic engineering traffic safety signalized intersection black spot identification and ranking empirical Bayes traffic accident statistical analysis
PACS:
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DOI:
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Abstract:
To accurately and effectively identify and rank traffic accident black spots, an accidentdatabased and an accidentpredictionmodelbased advanced empirical Bayes method was proposed. In addition, the practicability of the identification methods has been optimized. Furthermore, risk of accident involvement and safety benefits of treatment,two ranking criteria of black spots were suggested. Accident data for signalized intersections in two cities were collected. The accidentdatabased advanced empirical Bayes method was used to identify total accident black spots and fatal and injury accident black spots in city A. The total number of accident black spots identified in city A were subsequently ranked according to the risk of accident involvement. Concurrently, black spots in city B were identified by the accidentpredictionmodelbased advanced empirical Bayes method, and were ranked according to risk of accident involvement and safety benefits of treatment two criteria. The results show that 24 total accident black spots and 18 fatal and injury accident black spots were identified in city A at 95% confidence level, while 15 black spots were identified in city B at 99% confidence level. The advanced empirical Bayes method is superior to the rate quality control and accident rate methods regarding accuracy, the ability to eliminate the impact of random fluctuation and the regressiontothemean effect of accident frequency. The ranking criterion of the safety benefits of treatment favors the locations that are more costeffective to treat, while the ranking criterion of the risk of accident involvement favors the locations with higher deviation from the expected values. 7 tabs, 4 figs, 35 refs.

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Last Update: 2019-10-16