|Table of Contents|

Expressway dynamic risk discrimination methodbased on risk update theory(PDF)

长安大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

Issue:
2021年4期
Page:
115-126
Research Field:
交通工程
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Expressway dynamic risk discrimination methodbased on risk update theory
Author(s):
ZHANG Chi1;  YANG Shaoxiang2;  FENG Yiwei3;  XU Tian4;  ZHANG Kunlun1
(1. School of Highway, Changan University, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, China; 2. Broadvision EngineeringConsultants， Kunming 650011， Yunnan， China; 3. Xian Highway Research Institute, Xian 710061,Shaanxi, China; 4. CCCC First Highway Consultants Co., Ltd, Xian 710075, Shaanxi, China)
Keywords:
traffic engineering;  dynamic risk theory;  risk update theory;  expressway;  measurement space;  discriminant analysis
PACS:
-
DOI:
-
Abstract:
In order to further enrich the theoretical system of expressway traffic safety guarantee, a dynamic risk identification method of expressway including risk source, impact field, targets, measurement space and time scale was proposed. Firstly, the traffic flow data and accident data of the I80W highway from January to June 2019 by the California Traffic Management System (PeMS) were collected.Secondly, the risk research scene into the past, present and future according to the time scale were divided. The discriminant analysis method was used as the measure space to establish the risk discriminant function with five traffic flow parameters as independent variables.At the same time, the risk value R was calculated by using the discriminant function and applied it to the input field of the risk updating algorithm to complete the updating of the old risk model.Finally, the accuracy of the old discriminant function R14, the new discriminant function R5, the old and new mixed discriminant function R15 and the discriminant function Ru obtained by risk updating were tested, and the discriminant accuracy was 67.5%, 61%, 66% and 74%, respectively. The results show that the updated discriminant function is applied to expressway dynamic risk discrimination has higher precision of prediction, based on discriminant analysis method and risk updating algorithm of expressway dynamic risk identification method can continuously update dynamic risk evaluation model, can be applied in each period of expressway dynamic risk discriminant in the future. 5 tabs, 9 figs, 32 refs.

References:

Memo

Memo:
-
Last Update: 2021-08-12