|Table of Contents|

Impact of new energy vehicles on carbon emissions of private cars in China(PDF)

长安大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

Issue:
2023年5期
Page:
88-98
Research Field:
交通工程
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Impact of new energy vehicles on carbon emissions of private cars in China
Author(s):
TIAN Pei-ning1; 2;  CHEN Shuo1; 2;  MAO Bao-hua1; 2;  ZHOU Qi1; 2; HUANG Jun-sheng1; 2;  TONG Rui-yong1; 2
(1. Intergrated Transport Research Center of China, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologics for Comprehensive Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044,
Keywords:
traffic engineering;  carbon emission;  new energy vehicle;  bottom-up approach;  k-means clustering
PACS:
U491.9
DOI:
10.19721/j.cnki.1671-8879.2023.05.009
Abstract:
To study the impact of new energy vehicles(NEVs)on carbon emissions of private cars, based on the k-means clustering results of battery capacity and electricity consumption per unit kilometre for battery electric vehicles(BEVs), the carbon emission intensity of each type of private cars were calculated. Modified bottom-up approach was used to measure the carbon emissions of private cars and carbon emission reduction of NEVs from 2008 to 2035, and 10 single emission reduction measure scenarios and 2 integrated scenarios were set up, using the scenario analysis method, the carbon reduction strategies and peak pathways for private cars were studied, and the suggestions measures were proposed. The results show that the vehicle-kilometre carbon emissions of NEVs in private cars are 35% to 69% lower than those of petrol vehicles in the operational phase. Carbon emissions of private cars has grow at a fast rate from 2008 to 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 19.3%. The rapid growth of NEVs from 2021 to 2035 will slow down the growth rate of carbon emissions from private cars. Under the current NEV sales plan(20%, 40% and 50% of NEV sales share in 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively), the share of NEVs in private cars will reach 28% in 2035, and private car carbon emissions will be 668 million t CO2, tending to reach the peak(an increase of 0.41% from 2034). And NEV emission reduction will be 107 million t CO2, with an emission reduction rate of 13.81%. If the share of NEV sales is increased(30%, 50% and 70% of NEV sales share in 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively), private car carbon emissions will peak in 2033 at 628 million t CO2. In 2035, NEVs can achieve an emission reduction of 150 million t CO2, with an emission reduction rate of 19.32%. If a low-intensity combination of measures is adopted, private car carbon emissions will peak at 673 million t CO2 in 2034. If a high-intensity combination of measures is adopted, private car carbon emissions will peak earlier in 2030 at 581 million t CO2, and will fall to 540 million t CO2 in 2035, a decrease of 19.2% from the baseline scenario, with NEVs achieving an emission reduction of 236 million t CO2, a reduction rate of 30.39%. In order to peak carbon emissions of private cars by 2030, high-intensity emission reduction measures should be adopted, and the carbon reduction path for private cars should focus on promoting NEVs, while developing NEV energy-saving technologies and clean electricity, and focusing on guiding NEVs towards a high BEV share and lighter BEVs.3 tabs, 10 figs, 33 refs.

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Last Update: 2023-10-10