|Table of Contents|

Forecast of highway passenger volume based on improved system dynamics model(PDF)

长安大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

Issue:
2023年2期
Page:
111-119
Research Field:
交通工程
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Forecast of highway passenger volume based on improved system dynamics model
Author(s):
ZHANG Bing1;  ZHOU Dan-dan1;  ZHOU Xun2;  ZHANG Ming-yang3;  ZHONG Meng1
(1. School of Transportation Engineering, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang 330013, Jiangxi, China; 2. Jiangxi Comprehensive Transport Development Research Centre, Nanchang 330013, Jiangxi, China; 3. Jiangxi Vocational and Technical College of Transportation, Nanchang 330013, Jiangxi, China)
Keywords:
traffic engineering;  demand forecast;  system dynamics model;  Lotka-Volterra theory;  highway passenger volume
PACS:
U491.4
DOI:
10.19721/j.cnki.1671-8879.2023.02.011
Abstract:
In order to determine the development scale and law of highway passenger transportation, the improved system dynamics model was used to predict the highway passenger transportation volume. The Lotka-Volterra(LV)theory of ecology was introduced into the traditional system dynamics(SD)model. Firstly, qualitative analysis was made on the economic, social, transportation environment and other influencing factors related to passenger transport demand, a causal loop diagram was constructed to analyze the causal feedback relationships between various factors and highway passenger capacity, and the fuzzy dynamic relationship in the LV theory was introduced to determine the system. Then, the interaction coefficients between the feedback relationship factors were determined through the LV decision equation after the traffic transformation, and the differential equations in the system flow diagram were used to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the influencing factors and the highway passenger transport in the sub-models of each influencing factor. The system dynamics model was improved and optimized, and a time-varying dynamic LV-SD model was established. The forecast of highway passenger traffic in Jiangxi Province was taken as an example, according to the correlation coefficients between the highway passenger traffic and the influencing factors in the influencing factor model, the regional GDP, the output value of the tertiary industry, the consumption level of residents, the highway mileage, the civil aviation passenger traffic, railway passenger volume, population number and urbanization rate were selected as quantitative indicators to be substituted into the prediction model, and historical data from 2013 to 2018 were analyzed to verify the validity of the model. Combined with the development of the city, the Vensim software was used to analyze and predict the highway passenger traffic volume of Jiangxi Province under the three scenarios of high, medium and low economic growth from 2019 to 2025 based on the LV-SD model. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the LV-SD model is higher than that of the SD model, it is improved by nearly 7.2%. From 2021 to 2025, highway passenger volume in Jiangxi Province will increase first, then decrease, and finally flatten out.5 tabs, 4 figs, 32 refs.

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Last Update: 2023-03-30