|Table of Contents|

Operation cost prediction model of expressway after canceling toll(PDF)

长安大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

Issue:
2011年06期
Page:
90-93,104
Research Field:
Publishing date:
2011-12-20

Info

Title:
Operation cost prediction model of expressway after canceling toll
Author(s):
ZHANG Quan1; 2;  ZHOU Wei1;  WEN Hui-ying3;  LIN Shan3
1. School of Highway, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China; 2. Guangdong Province Administration of Highway, Guangzhou 510075, Guangdong, China; 3. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong, China
Keywords:
traffic engineering;  expressway;  operation cost;  genetic algorithm;  neural network;  prediction
PACS:
U491
DOI:
-
Abstract:
In order to avoid the shortcomings of simple neural network that will fall into local minimum point, through combing genetic algorithm with neural network, this paper proposed a hybrid algorithm which using genetic algorithm to optimize the weight of neural network, and used it to predict operating costs of expressway after canceling toll. The results show that the method can predict the operating costs better and also has higher prediction accuracy than simple BP neural network method, the average forecast error of the method is 0.06%, which is improved 1.5% than the simple BP method. This method can provide a certain reference for the expressway operating managers to make decision scientifically. 1 tab, 5 figs, 12 refs.

References:

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Memo

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Last Update: 2011-12-20