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Residuals improved GM(1,1) model of expressway traffic volume prediction(PDF)

长安大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

Issue:
2011年05期
Page:
77-79,96
Research Field:
Publishing date:
2011-10-20

Info

Title:
Residuals improved GM(1,1) model of expressway traffic volume prediction
Author(s):
LIN Wen-xin;  WANG Jian-wei;  YUAN Chang-wei
School of Economy and Management, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China
Keywords:
traffic engineering;  traffic volume prediction;  gray system;  residuals improved GM(1;  1)mode
PACS:
U491.113
DOI:
-
Abstract:
Expressway traffic has typical characteristics of gray system. In order to minis the excessive error and computational complexity from traditional GM(1,1)model in expressway traffic volume prediction, this paper defines the residual series, formulates a new sequence by using the sum of predicting sequence and the absolute value of residual sequence so as to construct a residuals improved GM(1,1)model to predict expressway traffic volume. The model is applied to an expressway for predicting 9 series data. The results shows that the average error of residuals improved GM(1,1)model is 7.25%, which is significantly better than that 12.7% of traditional GM(1,1)model. 3 tabs, 9 refs.

References:

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Memo

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Last Update: 2011-10-20