«Previous Article|Table of Contents|Next Article»

长安大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

Issue:

2011年03期

Page:

72-80

Research Field:

Publishing date:

2011-06-30

Info

Title:

Analysis system of urban rail transit passenger flow forecast result

Author(s):

WANG Yu-ping¹; 2;  CHEN Kuan-min¹;  YANG Fu-she³;  MA Chao-qun¹

1. School of Highway, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China; 2. School of Civil Engineering, Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology, Xi'an 710055, Shaanxi, China; 3. School of Science, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China

Keywords:

traffic engineering;  rail transit;  passenger flow forecast;  reliability;  risk analysis;  sensitivity analysis

PACS:

U491.1

DOI:

-

Abstract:

In view of the low credibility of urban rail transit passenger flow forecast, it was put forward that URT's anti-risk ability should be improved through analyzing passenger flow forecast. The structural framing of URT passenger flow forecast analysis was built, which include passenger flow reliability analysis, characteristic analysis, risk analysis and sensitivity analysis. From the process and result of passenger flow forecast, the keys of reliability analysis of URT passenger flow forecast were found. The indicators for URT passenger flow characteristic analysis were established, which take maximum segment passenger flow of peak hour unidirectional, space-time distribution as core. The risk size of URT passenger flow forecast could be reflected by the concentration ratio of passenger flow in mature area and some stations. Then the technical route of sensitivity analysis of passenger flow forecasting was proposed, and the sensitivity factors in different periods were chosen. Finally, the proposed method was used in the passenger flow forecast of Xi'an Metro Line 3. The result showes that the passenger flow forecast of Xi'an Metro Line 3 is reliable, but passenger flow space-time distribution is highly disproportion, and it has a big risk, and the fluctuating range is major. 4 tabs, 7 figs, 10 refs.

References:

[1] 过秀成,吕 慎.基于合作竞争类 OD 联合方式划分轨道客流分配模型研究[J].中国公路学报,2000,13(4):91-94. GUO Xiu-cheng,LU Shen.Study of URT's joint modal split assignment model on cooperative and competitive OD matrix[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2000,13(4):91-94.
[2]沈景炎.城市轨道交通客流预测的评估和抗风险设计[J].城市轨道交通研究,2002,5(2):26-31. SHEN Jing-yan.Evaluation and anti-risk design of the flow prediction in urban mass transit[J].Urban Mass Transit,2002,5(2):26-31.
[3]Litman T.Generated traffic and induced travel[J].Journal of Institute of Transportation Engineers,2001,71(4):38-47.
[4]Kitamura R,Fuji I S,Pas E I.Time-use data,analysis and modeling:toward the next generation of transportation planning methodologies[J].Transport Policy,1997,30(4):225-235.
[5]梁广深.城市轨道交通客流预测的不确定性分析[J].城市轨道交通研究,2007,10(5):1-3. LIANG Guang-shen.Uncertainty in traffic forecast:the case of Shanghai Metro Line 1[J]. Urban Mass Transit,2007,10(5):1-3.
[6]马超群,陈宽民,王玉萍.城市轨道交通客流预测方法[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2010,30(5):69-74. MA Chao-qun,CHEN Kuan-min,WANG Yu-ping. Forecasting model of urban rail transit volume[J].Journal of Chang'an University:Natural Science Edition,2010,30(5):69-74.
[7]沈景炎.城市轨道交通客流预测内容和应用[J].城市交通,2008,6(6):9-15,20. SHEN Jing-yan.Forecasting and application of rail transit passenger volumes[J].Urban Transport of China,2008,6(6):9-15,20.
[8]马超群,王玉萍.西安城市快轨交通线网方案客流测试研究[J].都市快轨交通,2006,19(4):24-28. MA Chao-qun,WANG Yu-ping.Traffic volume forecast for Xi'an urban rapid rail transit[J].Urban Rapid Rail Transit,2006,19(4):24-28.
[9]宋 杨,陈宽民,姚新虎.配合城市轨道交通的常规公交起讫点的确定[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2006,26(2):73-76. SONG Yang,CHEN Kuan-min,YAO Xin-hu.Selection of origin-destination site for bus-rote adapting urban rail transit[J].Journal of Chang'an University:Natural Science Edition,2006,26(2):73-76.
[10]袁玉玲,王选仓.城市轨道交通建设模式与措施[J].交通运输工程学报,2007,7(6):123-126. YUAN Yu-ling,WANG Xuan-cang.Construction modes and measures of urban rail transit[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,2007,7(6):123-126.

Memo

Memo:

-

Common functions

Last Update: 2011-06-30