|Table of Contents|

Forecasting model of urban rail transit volume(PDF)

长安大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

Issue:
2010年05期
Page:
69-74
Research Field:
Publishing date:
2010-10-20

Info

Title:
Forecasting model of urban rail transit volume
Author(s):
MA Chao-qun1;  CHEN Kuan-min1;  WANG Yu-ping1; 2
1. School of Highway, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China; 2. School of Civil Engineering, Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology, Xi'an 710055, Shaanxi, China
Keywords:
traffic engineering;  urban rapid rail transit;  four-steps model;  trip generation-distribution symbiosis;  combined model of mode split and traffic assignment
PACS:
U491.1
DOI:
-
Abstract:
In order to improve the reliability of urban rail transit volume forecasting, the forecasting methods used at present in China were analyzed, the trip generation-distribution symbiosis model for commuting trip was built to forecast trip production and attraction and trip distribution in peak-hour. Based on an integrated transport network, the combined model of mode split and traffic assignment was built. The improved model is applied to Xi'an metro line 3 as an example. The results indicate that the improved model can estimate the passenger flow effectively. The passenger volume in day of Xi'an metro line 3 are 39.00 million at preliminary stage, 74.76 million at short-term stage and 106.08 million at long-term stage. The peak hour directional max point volumes at these three stages are 1.69 million, 3.08 million and 3.75 million. 2 tabs, 5 figs, 12 refs.

References:

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Last Update: 2010-10-20