|Table of Contents|

ARIMA model of expressway traffic volume monthly forecasting(PDF)

长安大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

Issue:
2010年04期
Page:
82-85
Research Field:
Publishing date:
2010-08-20

Info

Title:
ARIMA model of expressway traffic volume monthly forecasting
Author(s):
RUI Shao-quan1;  KUANG An-le2
1. Shaanxi Xiyu Expressway Co Ltd, Xi'an 710016, Shaanxi, China; 2. School of Economy and Management, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China
Keywords:
traffic engineering;  expressway;  month traffic volume;  forecast;  ARIMA model
PACS:
U491
DOI:
-
Abstract:
In order to avoid the defect of large error rate of traditional forecasting methods, taking into account the seasonal cycle characteristics of expressway month traffic volume, an ARIMA prediction model was constructed, and the ARIMA model identification, model checking and model predictions were analyzed. The model is applied to an existed expressway to predict its month traffic volume. The results show that: the comprehensive error rate is 5.45%, better than the gray model of 35.43%, lower than the triple exponential smoothing of 5.65%; the ARIMA forecasting model can better meet the forecast of expressway month traffic volume. 3 tabs, 4 figs, 9 refs.

References:

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Last Update: 2010-08-20