[1]张驰,杨绍祥,冯逸伟,等.基于风险更新理论的高速公路动态风险判别方法[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2021,41(4):115-126.
 ZHANG Chi,YANG Shao xiang,FENG Yi wei,et al.Expressway dynamic risk discrimination methodbased on risk update theory[J].Journal of Chang’an University (Natural Science Edition),2021,41(4):115-126.
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基于风险更新理论的高速公路动态风险判别方法()
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长安大学学报(自然科学版)[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
第41卷
期数:
2021年4期
页码:
115-126
栏目:
交通工程
出版日期:
2021-07-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Expressway dynamic risk discrimination methodbased on risk update theory
作者:
张驰1杨绍祥2冯逸伟3许甜4张昆仑1
(1. 长安大学 公路学院,陕西 西安 710064; 2. 云南省交通规划设计研究院有限公司,云南 昆明 650011;3. 西安公路研究院,陕西 西安 710061; 4. 中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司,陕西 西安 710075)
Author(s):
ZHANG Chi1 YANG Shaoxiang2 FENG Yiwei3 XU Tian4 ZHANG Kunlun1
(1. School of Highway, Changan University, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, China; 2. Broadvision EngineeringConsultants, Kunming 650011, Yunnan, China; 3. Xian Highway Research Institute, Xian 710061,Shaanxi, China; 4. CCCC First Highway Consultants Co., Ltd, Xian 710075, Shaanxi, China)
关键词:
交通工程动态风险理论风险更新理论高速公路测度空间判别分析
Keywords:
traffic engineering dynamic risk theory risk update theory expressway measurement space discriminant analysis
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了进一步丰富高速公路交通安全保障理论体系,提出一种包括风险源、影响场、作用对象、测度空间以及时间尺度等风险要素的高速公路动态风险判别方法。首先,通过美国加州交通管理系统(PeMS)采集了I80W高速公路上2019年1~6月的交通流数据和事故数据;其次,以时序为刻度将风险研究场景分为过去、现在与未来3类,并以判别分析法为测度空间,建立以5种交通流参数为自变量的风险判别函数,同时以风险更新理论作为时间尺度,利用判别函数计算风险值R,并应用于风险更新算法中的输入场,完成旧风险模型更新;最后,采用统一样本对旧判别函数R14、新判别函数R5、新旧混合判别函数R15以及利用风险更新得到的判别函数Ru进行精度检验,其判别精度分别为67.5%、61%、66%、74%。结果表明:更新后的风险判别函数应用于高速公路动态风险判别具有更高的预测精度,基于判别分析法和风险更新算法的高速公路动态风险判别方法可以持续对动态风险评价模型进行更新,能够应用于未来各时间段的高速公路动态风险判别。〖JP〗
Abstract:
In order to further enrich the theoretical system of expressway traffic safety guarantee, a dynamic risk identification method of expressway including risk source, impact field, targets, measurement space and time scale was proposed. Firstly, the traffic flow data and accident data of the I80W highway from January to June 2019 by the California Traffic Management System (PeMS) were collected.Secondly, the risk research scene into the past, present and future according to the time scale were divided. The discriminant analysis method was used as the measure space to establish the risk discriminant function with five traffic flow parameters as independent variables.At the same time, the risk value R was calculated by using the discriminant function and applied it to the input field of the risk updating algorithm to complete the updating of the old risk model.Finally, the accuracy of the old discriminant function R14, the new discriminant function R5, the old and new mixed discriminant function R15 and the discriminant function Ru obtained by risk updating were tested, and the discriminant accuracy was 67.5%, 61%, 66% and 74%, respectively. The results show that the updated discriminant function is applied to expressway dynamic risk discrimination has higher precision of prediction, based on discriminant analysis method and risk updating algorithm of expressway dynamic risk identification method can continuously update dynamic risk evaluation model, can be applied in each period of expressway dynamic risk discriminant in the future. 5 tabs, 9 figs, 32 refs.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2021-08-12