[1]兆雪,赵文静,马壮林,等.基于VMS信息差异的驾驶人路径选择行为[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2020,40(3):91-99.
 ZHAO Xue,ZHAO Wen jing,MA Zhuang lin,et al.Drivers route choice behavior based on variablemessage sign (VMS) information differences[J].Journal of Chang’an University (Natural Science Edition),2020,40(3):91-99.
点击复制

基于VMS信息差异的驾驶人路径选择行为()
分享到:

长安大学学报(自然科学版)[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
第40卷
期数:
2020年3期
页码:
91-99
栏目:
交通工程
出版日期:
2020-05-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Drivers route choice behavior based on variablemessage sign (VMS) information differences
作者:
兆雪赵文静马壮林张荣辉
(1. 西安石油大学 理学院,陕西 西安 710065; 2. 中南大学 交通运输工程学院,湖南 长沙 410075;3. 长安大学 运输工程学院,陕西 西安 710064)
Author(s):
ZHAO Xue1 ZHAO Wenjing2 MA Zhuanglin3 ZHANG Ronghui3
(1. School of Science, Xian Shiyou University, Xian 710065, Shaanxi, China; 2. School of Traffic andTransportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, Hunan, China;3. College of Transportation Engineering, Changan University, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, China)
关键词:
交通工程VMS信息路径选择二项Logit模型Jackknife和Bootstrap技术
Keywords:
traffic engineering variable message sign route choice binary Logit model Jackknife and Bootstrap technology
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了探究可变信息标志(variable message sign, VMS)条件下驾驶人路径选择行为的影响因素,以西安市私家车和出租车驾驶人为调查对象,采用正交试验法设计调查问卷,采用行为(revealed preference,RP)调查和意愿(stated preference,SP)调查结合的方法,获取特定情景下驾驶人的路径选择行为;采用二项Logit模型构建驾驶人路径选择行为决策模型,并分别用Jackknife和Bootstrap抽样技术修正所构建的模型,对比分析上述3种模型的精度。在基于Bootstrap技术的二项Logit模型的基础上,分别讨论不同的VMS发布形式、拥堵原因、拥堵时间和更新频率对驾驶人路径选择行为的影响。研究结果表明:Jackknife技术不能提高Logit模型精度,而Bootstrap技术可以显著地提高Logit模型的精度;文字式和图文混合式的VMS发布形式对驾驶人路径选择行为有显著的正影响,且影响程度相差不大,而图形式的VMS发布形式对驾驶人路径选择行为没有显著的影响;拥堵原因对驾驶人改变路径的影响强度从大到小依次为交通事故、车流量大、道路施工;随着拥堵时间的增加,受过高等教育的驾驶人选择替代路径的概率逐渐增大;驾驶人更愿意接收到更新频率为30、60 s的建议绕行信息。研究结论有助于交通管理部门设计更可接受、易理解的VMS信息,从而为改善交通状况和提供个性化的出行信息服务奠定理论基础。
Abstract:
In order to explore the factors affecting drivers route choice behavior under variable message sign (VMS) information environment, the orthogonal experimental was applied to design the questionnaire, and the data about private cars and taxi drivers route choice behavior in a specific situation was surveyed by a combination of revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) survey method. A binary Logit (BL) model was used to establish the drivers route choice behavior decision model. Two BL models of drivers route choice behavior based on Jackknife and Bootstrap technology were built respectively, and the fitting accuracy of above three models were compared and analyzed. On the basis of the BL model based on Bootstrap technology, the impact of display form, congestion cause, congestion time, and update frequency in VMS on drivers route choice behavior were classified and discussed. The results show that Jackknife technology could not improve the accuracy of BL model, while Bootstrap technology could significantly improve the accuracy of BL model. The display format in VMS of text and textgraph have a significantly positive and approximate effect on drivers route choice behavior, while the effect of the graphicaided information is not significant. In terms of influential degree of congestion cause, the information is ranked in the following order, traffic accident, heave traffic and road construction. With the increasing of congestion time, the probability of higher education drivers choosing alternative routes gradually increases. Drivers are more likely to receive the suggested alternative route information with the update frequency for 30 and 60 seconds. The conclusion of this study could assist traffic authorities to design the most acceptable and understandable VMS information, and lay a theory foundation for improving traffic situation and providing personal travel information services. 8 tabs, 2 figs, 22 refs.

相似文献/References:

[1]王建伟,李娉,高洁,等.中国交通运输碳减排区域划分[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(01):0.
[2]李曙光,周庆华.具有破坏排队的离散时间动态网络装载算法[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(01):0.
[3]凌海兰,郗恩崇.基于随机波动条件的公交客运量预测模型[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(01):0.
[4]田娥,肖庆,陆小佳,等.安全驾驶的横向安全预警报警阈值的确定[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(01):0.
[5]侯贻栋,赵炜华,魏 朗,等.驾驶人空间距离判识规律心理学分析[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(03):86.
 HOU Yi-dong,ZHAO Wei-hua,WEI Lang,et al.Analysis on psychology in cognitive distance about drivers[J].Journal of Chang’an University (Natural Science Edition),2012,32(3):86.
[6]赵跃峰,张生瑞,魏 华.隧道群路段运行速度特性分析[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(06):67.
 ZHAO Yue-feng,ZHANG Sheng-rui,WEI hua.Operating speed characteristics of tunnel group section[J].Journal of Chang’an University (Natural Science Edition),2012,32(3):67.
[7]林 杉,许宏科,刘占文.一种高速公路隧道交通流元胞自动机模型[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(06):73.
 LIN Shan,XU Hong-ke,LIU Zhan-wen.One cellular automaton traffic flow model for expressway tunnel[J].Journal of Chang’an University (Natural Science Edition),2012,32(3):73.
[8]刘俊德,徐 兵,梁永东,等.交通事故下高速公路行车安全评估[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(06):78.
 LIU Jun-de,XU bing,LIANG Yong-dong,et al.Traffic safety assessment of expressway in the accident[J].Journal of Chang’an University (Natural Science Edition),2012,32(3):78.
[9]芮海田,吴群琪,赵跃峰,等.公路建设对区域经济发展的影响分析——以陕西省为例[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(06):83.
 RUI Hai-tian,WU Qun-qi,ZHAO Yue-feng,et al.Influence of highway construction on regional economy development——taking Shaanxi as an example[J].Journal of Chang’an University (Natural Science Edition),2012,32(3):83.
[10]彭 辉,续宗芳,韩永启,等.城市群城际运输结构配置客流分担率模型[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(02):91.
 PENG Hui,XU Zong-fang,HAN Yong-qi,et al.Sharing ratios model of passenger flows in intercity transportation structure configuration among urban agglomeration[J].Journal of Chang’an University (Natural Science Edition),2012,32(3):91.

更新日期/Last Update: 2020-06-03