[1]李国旗,王萍,吴婉姗,等.供需平衡视角下城市轨道交通分层与分类方法[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2020,40(5):87-96.
　LI Guo qi,WANG Ping,WU Wan sha,et al.Urban rail transit stratification and classification method based on perspective of supply and demand balance[J].Journal of Chang’an University (Natural Science Edition),2020,40(5):87-96.
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供需平衡视角下城市轨道交通分层与分类方法()
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长安大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
第40卷
期数:
2020年5期
页码:
87-96
栏目:
交通工程
出版日期:
2020-09-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Urban rail transit stratification and classification method based on perspective of supply and demand balance
作者:
李国旗; 王萍; 吴婉姗; 施路
（1. 西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院，四川 成都 610031； 2. 西南交通大学 综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室，四川 成都 611756； 3. 西南交通大学 综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室，四川 成都 611756； 4. 中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司，四川 成都 610031）
Author(s):
LI Guoqi;  WANG Ping;  WU Wansha;  SHI Lu
(1. School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, Sichuan, China;2. National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, Southwest JiaotongUniversity, Chengdu 611756, Sichuan, China； 3. National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated TransportationBig Data Application Technology, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, Sichuan, China；4. China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group CO.LTD, Chengdu 610031, Sichuan, China)
关键词:
交通工程; 轨道交通; 需求分析; 供需平衡
Keywords:
traffic engineering;  rail transit;  demand analysis;  supply and demand balance
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对当前城市轨道交通规划建设与运营过程中存在的供需结构性矛盾，系统评价了中国主要城市2025年的轨道交通客流需求强度与线网供给间的失衡程度，首先在熵值理论和交通需求分析法的基础上，提出城市轨道交通供给潜力分层方法，以及基于供给潜力分层的交通需求分析模型，对城市轨道交通供给潜力量化分层、客流需求强度进行预测；其次，基于人均密度和负荷强度指标对城市轨道交通进行分类；最后，选择中国14个典型大城市作为研究样本，验证提出方法的合理性和模型的可行性。研究结果表明：60%的高潜力城市易出现供给富余，这与城市多中心空间结构导致的轨道交通分担率不高以及现有负荷强度偏高有关，其中广州负荷强度过高以及西安线网规模偏小导致了供给富余的假象；60%的中潜力城市和75%的低潜力城市供给不足，这与城市职住地失衡较为严重，而线路密度和负荷强度偏低有关；按照人均密度和负荷强度变化情况，2025年样本城市有望形成5种类型，其中北京为高密度高负荷城市，线网运行效益较好，广州、重庆、南京为高密度中负荷城市，天津、深圳、沈阳、长春、大连为中密度高负荷城市，西安、上海为中密度中负荷城市，这4类城市供需更趋协调平衡；杭州、成都、武汉为高密度低负荷城市，应重新评估路网布局的科学性，有效提升客流需求强度。
Abstract:
Aiming at the current structural contradictions between supply and demand in the planning, construction, and operation of urban rail transit (URT), the degree of imbalance between the demand for URT passenger flow and the network supply in major cities were evaluated in China in 2025. Firstly, a tiered method of URT supply potential and a transport demand analysis model was proposed based on tiered supply potential on the basis of the entropy theory and traffic demand analysis method, to predict the quantified and hierarchical supply potential of URT and the passenger demand intensity. Secondly, based on the per capita density and passenger flow intensity indicators, URT was classified. Finally, the 14 typical large cities in China were selected as research samples to verify the rationality of the method and the feasibility of the model. The results show that 60% of highpotential cities are prone to supply surplus, which is related to the low share rate of URT passenger flow caused by the urban polycentric space and the high passenger flow intensity. Among them, Guangzhous excessive passenger flow intensity and the small network scale of the Xian have led to the illusion of surplus supply. 60% of the mediumpotential cities and 75% of the lowpotential cities are undersupplied, which is related to the serious jobhousing imbalance and the low network density and passenger flow intensity. As of 2025, the samples will be divided into five types, based on the changes of population density and passenger flow. Among them, Beijing is a highdensity and highintensity city, with good network operational benefits. Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Nanjing are highdensity and mediumintensity cities. Tianjin, Shenzhen, Shenyang, Changchun, and Dalian are mediumdensity and highintensity cities. Xian and Shanghai are mediumdensity and highintensity cities. The supply and demand of these four types of cities are more coordinated and balanced. Highdensity and lowintensity cities, such as Hangzhou, Chengdu and Wuhan, should reevaluate the scientific nature of the road network layout and rapidly the demand for passenger flow. 5 tabs, 2 figs, 25 refs.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2020-10-12