[1]宁 津,冯璋洁,纪文童,等.基于序贯蒙特卡洛的高速公路自洽能源系统适配性评估[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2024,44(5):71-88.[doi:10.19721/j.cnki.1671-8879.2024.05.007]
　NING Jin,FENG Zhang-jie,JI Wen-tong,et al.Evaluation of supply and demand fitness for highway self-consistent energy systems based on sequential Monte-Carlo[J].Journal of Chang’an University (Natural Science Edition),2024,44(5):71-88.[doi:10.19721/j.cnki.1671-8879.2024.05.007]
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基于序贯蒙特卡洛的高速公路自洽能源系统适配性评估()
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长安大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
第44卷
期数:
2024年5期
页码:
71-88
栏目:
交通能源融合技术专题
出版日期:
2024-10-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
Evaluation of supply and demand fitness for highway self-consistent energy systems based on sequential Monte-Carlo
文章编号:
1671-8879(2024)05-0071-18
作者:
宁 津; 冯璋洁; 纪文童; 叶笑容; 黄 仙
(华北电力大学 控制与计算机工程学院,北京 102206)
Author(s):
NING Jin;  FENG Zhang-jie;  JI Wen-tong;  YE Xiao-rong;  HUANG Xian
(School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)
关键词:
交通工程;  高速公路自洽能源系统;  序贯蒙特卡洛;  多微电网;  适配性;  系统综合评价
Keywords:
traffic engineering;  highway self-consistent energy systems;  sequential Monte-Carlo;  multiple microgrids;  fitness;  integrated system evaluation
分类号:
U491.54
DOI:
10.19721/j.cnki.1671-8879.2024.05.007
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对规划以非碳基能源发电为高速公路用电负荷(包括服务区、隧道、桥梁、收费站等)供能的适配性问题,首先构建包含自洽率、供电可靠率、缺电频率等10个指标的高速公路自洽能源系统适配性指标体系。其次,充分考虑系统供需两侧的不确定性,基于蒙特卡洛模拟生成风、光场景集,并依次建立风-光-储发电模型、计及气候变化和投入使用时间两因素的元件时变可靠性模型、包含储能系统调度与子微网间互联的多微电网运行控制策略,应用序贯蒙特卡洛法建立适配性指标的定量评估方法。选取适配性指标体系中的自洽率、供电可靠率以及缺电频率等5个指标作为评级主要依据,基于层次分析法建立适配性综合等级评定方法。最后,进行算例仿真,分析基于不同的风-光-储设备配置方案下,不同微网间功率互联约束与可靠性模型对系统适配性指标评估结果产生的影响。研究结果表明:通过微网间的功率互济可有效提升系统整体适配性,当互联量约束设定为最大子微网负荷的20%时,相比独立子微网未互联时,系统自洽率指标可提升3%～25%、供电可靠率指标可提升4%～23%,适配性评价结果可提升0～2个等级。
Abstract:
In order to address the fitness of non-carbon-based energy generation for supplying electricity to highway loads(including service areas, tunnels, bridges, toll stations, etc.), a highway self-consistent energy systems fitness index system was constructed, which includes 10 indexes including self-consistency rate, power supply reliability rate, and frequency of power shortage, etc. Secondly, the wind and light scenarios were generated based on Monte-Carlo simulation, and the wind-optical-storage model was established. Secondly, the uncertainty of both supply and demand sides of the system was fully considered, and the wind and light scenarios were generated based on Monte-Carlo simulation, and the wind-photovoltaic-storage power generation model, the time-varying reliability model of the components taking into account the factors of climate change and the time of commissioning, and the multi-microgrid operation and control strategy including the scheduling of the storage system and the interconnection between the sub-microgrids were established in turn, and the quantitative assessment method of the fitness indexes was established by the application of the sequential Monte-Carlo method. The method of quantitative assessment of the fitness indexes was applied by sequential Monte-Carlo method. Then, five indicators in the fitness index system, such as self-consistency rate, power supply reliability rate, and power shortage frequency, were selected as the main basis for rating, and a comprehensive rating method for fitness was established based on the hierarchical analysis method. Finally, arithmetic simulations were carried out to analyze the impact of different inter-microgrid power interconnection constraints and reliability models on the results of the system's fitness index assessment based on different wind-photovoltaic-storage equipment configuration schemes. The results show that the power interconnection between microgrids can effectively improve the overall system fitness, and when the interconnection constraint is set to 20% of the maximum sub-microgrid load, compared with the independent sub-microgrids without interconnection, the system self-consistency index improves by about 3% to 25%, the power supply reliability index improves by about 4% to 23%, and the fitness evaluation results improve by zero to two grades.17 tabs, 16 figs, 35 refs.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2024-05-12
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB2601300)
作者简介:宁 津(1997-),男,内蒙古赤峰人,工学博士研究生,E-mail:ning.jin@ncepu.edu.cn。
通讯作者:黄 仙(1966-),男,江西赣州人,教授,博士研究生导师,E-mail:hx@ncepu.edu.cn。
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-10-20